COP31 Antalya Climate Summit: A New Era for Cooling and Industrial Process Cooling

1. The COP31 agenda and energy efficiency

The presidency objectives described in the Cool Coalition’s COP31 ministerial dialogue announcement include reducing building energy intensity by 25% by 2035 and increasing electricity’s share of final energy consumption to 35% by 2035. These should not be interpreted as mandatory targets imposed solely on the cooling industry. [3]

Cooling affects the climate through direct emissions, such as refrigerant leakage, and indirect emissions associated with electricity used by compressors, pumps, fans and auxiliary equipment. System design and operation therefore matter as much as equipment selection.

• High-efficiency compressors and chillers, with performance verified at actual operating conditions.
• Variable-speed drives, staged capacity control and suitable inverter applications.
• Free cooling where the climate and required water temperatures allow it.
• Heat recovery, heat pumps and integrated heating-and-cooling solutions.
• Smart controls, energy monitoring and continuous evaluation of load profiles.
• Hydronic systems with jointly optimised water flow, design temperature difference and pressure drop.

A low water temperature difference is not inherently an efficiency benefit. At the same thermal load, a smaller temperature difference can require a higher flow rate. Pump consumption and heat exchanger performance must be assessed together.

This is not a guarantee of annual energy savings. COP values must be compared at identical conditions and with the same equipment boundary. Annual results depend on operating hours, part-load behaviour, ambient and water temperatures, and auxiliaries. Here COP means coefficient of performance; in the conference name it means Conference of the Parties.

2. Refrigerant transition: lower GWP and natural refrigerants

GWP expresses a gas’s warming effect relative to carbon dioxide over a specified time horizon. The high GWP of some HFC refrigerants makes leak prevention and the assessment of suitable alternatives important.

The first part of this transition is the use of lower-GWP HFO refrigerants and HFO/HFC blends where appropriate. The second is natural refrigerants such as carbon dioxide (R744), ammonia (R717) and propane (R290). The third is better management of existing equipment through leak detection, maintenance, recovery, recycling and proper end-of-life refrigerant handling.

GWP alone is not a sufficient selection criterion. Energy performance, flammability, toxicity, operating pressure, material compatibility, service infrastructure and total life-cycle impact must all be assessed. A new refrigerant must not be assumed to be a drop-in replacement for an existing unit.

The phase-down of HFC production and consumption is governed by the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol. COP31 provides a forum for alignment with wider climate objectives; it does not mean an immediate ban on all HFCs. Country- and product-specific requirements need separate verification. [5]

3. The transition in industrial process cooling

In plastics, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, food, metalworking, automotive, electronics and machinery manufacturing, temperature control directly affects product quality and process safety. The green industrialisation theme of the UNFCCC COP31 Action Agenda provides a framework for considering lower-carbon production. The applications below are an engineering interpretation of that framework. [2]

3.1. Matching capacity and flow to actual demand

A system sized for peak load does not need to run continuously at full capacity. As production demand changes, compressor staging, pump flow and fan speed can be adjusted within suitable limits. Minimum evaporator flow, oil return and process temperature stability must be maintained.

3.2. Recovering waste heat

Heat rejected at the condenser can serve domestic hot water, space heating or process preheating when temperature levels and simultaneous demand are suitable. Heat pumps can raise this energy to higher temperatures. Additional electricity consumption, heating demand duration and effects on cooling performance must be calculated together.

3.3. Balancing water and energy

Cooling towers and evaporative systems require assessment of water consumption, blowdown and water treatment. Dry coolers and hybrid systems can reduce water use in some projects, but high ambient temperatures may result in greater electricity use or different achievable water temperatures. No single technology is optimal for every facility.

4. Commercial HVAC and building cooling

Summer cooling demand can increase peak loads on electricity networks. A sustainable approach means not only selecting efficient equipment but also reducing the building’s cooling demand.

Insulation, solar shading, natural ventilation in suitable climates and passive cooling should be considered alongside building automation and efficient mechanical systems. VRF, central chiller plants, heat pumps and district cooling address different requirements. Selection should reflect climate, load profile, maintenance infrastructure and total life-cycle cost. IEA research also supports the importance of cooling efficiency. [7]

5. Food cold chains and resource efficiency

Maintaining suitable temperatures from harvest through storage, transport and retail helps reduce food losses. When food is lost, the water, energy and other resources used to produce it are also wasted.

Sustainable cold chains can deliver a dual benefit: reducing product losses and cutting cooling energy use and direct emissions. Options include efficient cold stores, suitable natural-refrigerant systems, heat recovery, solar-supported applications and reliable temperature monitoring.

Energy efficiency and electrification in refrigerated transport are also relevant. For Türkiye’s agricultural and food exports, investment in temperature continuity and traceability can create opportunities for equipment manufacturers and system integrators.

6. A dedicated sustainable-cooling agenda at COP31

According to the Cool Coalition announcement, the Ministerial Dialogue on Heat Resilience and Sustainable Cooling is planned for 16 November 2026 in Antalya. As of 10 November this is a future event; its agenda must not be presented as an agreed outcome statement. [3]

• Reviewing progress under the Global Cooling Pledge.
• Developing a country-led Global Heat Resilience Roadmap and taking it forward towards COP32.
• Discussing the 2027–2028 workplan, cooperation, technical support and investment opportunities.
• Strengthening alignment between the Paris Agreement and the Kigali Amendment.

UNEP’s conference programme also includes resilient cities, buildings and sustainable cooling. This places cooling within adaptation to extreme heat and social resilience, rather than treating it solely as an energy-consuming activity. [4]

7. Implications for Türkiye’s manufacturers, investors and service sector

Manufacturers

Efficient design, suitable lower-GWP options and measurable product performance are important. Capacity figures should state their operating conditions; nominal capacity alone is not an adequate basis for comparison.

Engineering and contracting companies

Energy audits, system optimisation, heat recovery and retrofit projects may offer opportunities. Total cost of ownership should include energy, maintenance and downtime as well as initial investment.

Exporters

Each target market’s applicable energy efficiency, product safety and refrigerant requirements must be monitored separately. EU F-gas legislation, for example, is not the same as COP31 decisions. Regulation (EU) 2024/573 contains product- and application-specific provisions, so compliance must be assessed for the actual product. [6]

Technical and service personnel

Working with new refrigerants requires suitable training, tools and safety procedures. Design, installation and maintenance competence is particularly important where flammability, high pressure or toxicity are involved.

8. A proposed industry roadmap for 2026–2035

The following stages are CEMS Chiller’s industry recommendations, not a binding timetable announced by COP31.

2026–2028 | Measurement, analysis and preparation

Measure electricity consumption, load profiles, refrigerant inventories, leakage records, water use and recoverable heat. Define real operating conditions for new investments and assess lower-GWP alternatives and staff training during design.

2028–2030 | Technology transition

Use measurement results to prioritise upgrades. Select efficient chillers, variable-speed drives, suitable free cooling, heat recovery and advanced controls through technical and economic feasibility analysis.

2030–2035 | Low-carbon infrastructure

Consider renewable electricity, suitable energy storage, demand-side management and digital optimisation together. Product design should take greater account of repairability, material recovery and life-cycle emissions.

9. Conclusion: efficiency matters as much as capacity

As cooling demand grows, the central aim is to meet it with less energy, lower direct emissions and more efficient resource use. Energy efficiency, safe refrigerant management and integrated heating and cooling are the three core elements of this transition.

For Türkiye, COP31 offers an opportunity to strengthen international visibility and technical cooperation in the domestic cooling and HVAC industry. Turning ambitions into practical benefits, however, requires measurement, sound engineering, competent service and verifiable performance.

A chiller investment should be judged not only by the kilowatts of cooling it provides, but also by the conditions, energy consumption and total cost at which it delivers that capacity.